Description

This analysis provides a forecast of COMP5692 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-02 52.412764 58.148166 64.635133 72.601098 82.241749 93.697238 108.600578
2025-02-09 45.628904 53.184560 62.468065 75.027204 92.111977 115.451927 151.624409
2025-02-16 41.099963 49.255757 59.767736 74.854519 97.002059 130.389727 189.762962
2025-02-23 38.021061 46.585831 58.061621 75.371884 102.551616 147.503566 239.650443
2025-03-02 34.961872 43.500458 55.257661 73.643306 104.011729 158.079567 283.483826
2025-03-09 32.502103 40.953378 52.857021 72.050343 105.191881 168.326281 333.917650
2025-03-16 29.828380 37.867024 49.344016 68.197349 101.664684 168.267255 358.466208
2025-03-23 29.056541 37.412539 49.654575 70.504484 109.612693 194.850164 490.366044
2025-03-30 27.627087 35.879760 48.163779 69.564519 111.160043 207.588654 594.949950
2025-04-06 26.308311 34.416864 46.650456 68.384249 111.974400 218.907302 717.392856
2025-04-13 24.684061 32.401055 44.117203 65.123639 107.889909 215.747435 759.629897
2025-04-20 24.545290 32.621092 45.170366 68.460197 118.683805 260.276185 1288.733287
2025-04-27 24.490450 33.041591 46.713928 73.214336 134.852094 338.736640 3474.238270
2025-05-04 23.907420 32.599608 46.783439 75.163731 145.104757 409.739443 13385.931360
2025-05-11 23.070221 31.685397 45.940477 75.101150 150.012808 464.611086 264019.729035
2025-05-18 22.388628 30.978915 45.399895 75.596739 156.747665 541.703806 NaN
2025-05-25 21.453117 29.801008 43.922776 73.865204 156.344868 576.430393 NaN
2025-06-01 20.608464 28.731857 42.572058 72.263590 155.998929 613.816301 NaN
2025-06-08 19.518769 27.208723 40.306758 68.393025 147.526682 578.930851 NaN
2025-06-15 19.311332 27.153083 40.739020 70.710705 160.241064 751.342769 NaN
2025-06-22 18.708490 26.398563 39.815355 69.766411 161.503980 824.196291 NaN
2025-06-29 18.115244 25.635551 38.831866 68.580736 161.635645 889.737211 NaN
2025-07-06 17.306387 24.475647 37.040363 65.305486 153.316071 829.857180 NaN